For Ireland, the peak was in early September.Īustralia and New Zealand are just approaching ‘peak immunity’ now, so early December is precisely the ideal time to ‘open up’, as Blakely argues. The chart shows Germany and Austria attaining peak vaccination immunity in August, soon after the ‘delta variant’ became the dominant variant of Covid19 in Europe. Essentially, he was referring to vaccination-induced immunity, where there is a waxing as ‘jabs’ are given, and a waning (especially) in the period between second and third vaccine doses. On 9 November, in this story, Covid-19: Experts at odds over move to traffic light system, Melbourne-based New Zealand epidemiologist Tony Blakely refers to ‘the community’s “peak immunity”‘. The above chart plots estimates of vaccine-induced immunity to Covid19, for five countries, including three in Europe currently in the news for their most recent wave of covid infections and deaths.Įssentially, I give a score of 0.5 for each vaccine shot and I assume that immunity wanes by 0.4% per day, starting 20 days after receipt of a vaccine shot.
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